Saving Democracy? Lukewarm Incumbent Voters and Fate of Executive Aggrandizement in South Korea and Turkey

with Aykut Öztürk. We demonstrate that, among the voters who voted for the ruling party inprevious elections, those with lukewarm affective ties to the party were more likely to defectdue to concerns of executive aggrandizement, compared to voters having similar concernsbut stronger affective ties.

We compare a success (Turkey) and a failure (SouthKorea) of democratic erosion. South Korea recently suffered from executive aggrandizement, where President Park attempted to dismantle democratic institutions, which resulted in her being impeached. Turkish President Erdogan succeeded in institutionalizing aggrandizedexecutive power through constitutional amendment. We explain the divergent outcomes between these two cases in terms of the relative strength of voters’ affective attachments tothe ruling party. We demonstrate that, among the voters who voted for the ruling party inprevious elections, those with lukewarm affective ties to the party were more likely to defectdue to concerns of executive aggrandizement, compared to voters having similar concernsbut stronger affective ties.